4

Cuba is currently facing one of the most severe crises in decades, and it is directly fueling new waves of protests across the island.

This is not just a protest movement—it’s a full-system crisis involving:

👉 Economic collapse + energy breakdown + political pressure

⚡ What Is Happening Right Now

🔥 1. Nationwide Blackouts

Cuba has been hit by repeated total power outages, including:

• A nationwide blackout in March 2026 affecting nearly the entire population

• Multiple blackouts over the past 2 years due to:

  • Fuel shortages

  • Aging infrastructure

  • Lack of maintenance

At times:

👉 Millions of people are left without electricity for days

💰 2. Severe Economic Crisis

Cuba is experiencing:

• Food shortages

• Inflation

• Medicine scarcity

The situation is widely described as:

👉 The worst economic crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union

⛽ 3. Fuel Shortages & Energy Collapse

A major factor:

• No oil shipments for months

• Power plants shutting down

This has caused:

• Transportation breakdown

• Healthcare disruption

• Daily life collapse

🔥 Protests Are Rising Again

4

Despite strict government control, protests are increasing.

📊 What we’re seeing:

• Protests increased from ~30 in January to 130+ by March 2026

• Demonstrations over:

  • Blackouts

  • Food shortages

  • Economic hardship

💥 Notable incidents:

• Protesters attacked a Communist Party building in one city

• Nighttime protests (“cacerolazos”) during blackouts

• Small but growing anti-government demonstrations

👉 Important:

Protests are still smaller than 2021—but increasing again

📉 Why People Are Protesting

💡 1. No Electricity

• Blackouts lasting hours to days

• Entire cities going dark

🍞 2. Food Shortages

• Long lines for basic goods

• Limited availability

💵 3. Economic Collapse

• Low wages

• Rising prices

• Lack of opportunity

🚫 4. Lack of Freedom

• Limited political expression

• Strict control over protests

👉 Combined effect:

Basic survival + frustration = protest pressure

⚔️ Government Response

4

The Cuban government has responded with:

🔒 Crackdowns

• Arrests of protesters

• Warnings against dissent

📡 Information Control

• Monitoring communication

• Limiting protest coordination

📢 Messaging

• Blaming external forces (especially U.S. sanctions)

• Organizing pro-government demonstrations

👉 Key point:

The state is trying to contain unrest before it spreads

🌍 External Pressure (Huge Factor)

One major difference in Cuba compared to other countries:

👉 Geopolitics plays a major role

🇺🇸 U.S. Pressure

• Sanctions and restrictions

• Oil supply disruptions

• Economic isolation

👉 These factors have:

• Worsened shortages

• Increased pressure on the system

🔄 Where Cuba Fits in Your Global Model

Cuba is a hybrid case combining multiple patterns:

🔁 Pattern Match:

1. Economic collapse

2. Infrastructure failure (blackouts)

3. Public frustration

4. Rising protests

5. Government crackdown

6. Ongoing instability

🌍 Similar to:

• 🇻🇪 Venezuela → economic collapse + protests
• 🇮🇷 Iran → protests under pressure
• 🇲🇲 Myanmar → strong state control

🔮 What Happens Next?

Cuba is at a critical point.

Possible paths:

🟡 1. Continued Contained Unrest (most likely)

• Ongoing protests

• Government maintains control

🔴 2. Larger Uprising

• If shortages worsen

• If protests unify

⚫ 3. System Crisis

• If energy + economy fully collapse

👉 Right now:

Cuba is under extreme pressure—but not collapsed

🧠 Final Reflection

Cuba shows one of the clearest realities in your entire series:

👉 When basic systems (food, power, fuel) fail, protest becomes inevitable

But also:

👉 Strong state control can still prevent full revolution

🔚 Key Insight

Cuba is not just protesting—
it is struggling to function as a system.